Kansas Mediocrity

Rumors have been swirling for weeks now that North Korea has been preparing for another ballistic missile launch. This panic has been matched by a stratospheric level of rhetoric on both sides. But before angry words turn into hostile actions, it would help to take a step back and objectively look at what is at stake.  

After reports from intelligence agencies about activities at a potential North Korean missile launch site sparked the flames, North Korean officials were eager to fan them to their advantage. Stating that what could be coming was a satellite launch, Pyongyang insisted that it had the right to be a space-faring nation. Meanwhile, officials from South Korea, Japan, and the United States were worried that North Korea was actually preparing for a test of one of its Taepo Dong ballistic missiles.  

North Korea has conducted two flight tests of the Taepo Dong. The first was in August 1998, when Taepo Dong-1 was supposed to place a satellite in orbit. The satellite payload failed to separate from the missile, but this test did demonstrate the existence of a rocket’s third stage in North Korea’s missile arsenal, which potentially could give it a longer range. The Taepo Dong-1 reportedly has a reach of 2000 kilometers. 

The second test launch occurred during the 2006 Fourth of July weekend, when North Korea held a series of ballistic missile tests over the course of several days. A Taepo Dong-2 failed 42 seconds into its flight. The Taepo Dong-2 is speculated to have a range of anywhere between 3,500 to 7,000 kilometers, depending on the size of the warhead it would be carrying.  

So what we have is a long-range ballistic missile arsenal which North Korea has flown exactly twice in the past eleven years and which has undergone flight failures each time.  

North Korea’s testing of a small nuclear weapon in October 2006 (which also fizzled) prompted the United Nations Security Council to pass Resolution 1718, which forbade North Korea from continuing its work on ballistic missile technology. This may be why Pyongyang is insisting that the impending test is only a satellite launch. In any case, its leaders have alerted several international organizations (aviation and maritime authorities) that its launch will be occurring somewhere between April 4 and April 8.  

Meanwhile, Japanese officials have sent missile defense-equipped Aegis ships to within range, as have U.S. officials. Throughout all this, South Korean officials have been vociferously warning North Korea to cease its ballistic missile activities.  

This vehemence is perhaps being provoked by North Korea’s actions. But it overlooks one key fact: South Korea and Japan are already within reach of other North Korean missiles. The South Korean capital of Seoul is even within range of North Korea’s artillery. This step by North Korea poses no new threat to the countries of northeast Asia. Prior to news of this latest launch, South Korea and Japan had already been fielding missile defenses. However, this deployment works only as a symbolic gesture, as those countries’ missile defense systems would very easily be overwhelmed by the massive numbers of missiles North Korea could lob at them. The missile defense solution will provide them with little to no defense, so the two countries will have to seek out a diplomatic response.  

So what about the United States: Will we have to worry about losing a city to a North Korean missile? Given the breakneck pace of Pyonyang’s long-range ballistic missile development, we have time to resolve this issue before it gets out of control. But in order to do that, we too must be willing to negotiate with the North Koreans. The George W. Bush administration spent eight years trying to dictate terms to Pyongyang; by the end, even the Bush White House had realized the futility of doing so. Under the Barack Obama administration, we have the opportunity to start afresh and find a workable solution that we can live with. Otherwise, we end up playing right into North Korea’s hands and flying into a tizzy every time a Taepo Dong is test-launched.